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Lucky Lucc's Breeders' Cup Predictions 10/27/2005 12:13:38 PM Welcome back for 4th installment of Lucky Lucc's Breeders' Cup Preview. My mantra has remained the same. That is, you go to the track to beat the favourite, not bet the favourite. This year, the Breeders' Cup is being held at the behemoth Belmont Park in New York. This will be the 4th time that the Breeders' Cup has been held there. The last time was in 2001 where only 1 favourite - Fantastic Light in the Turf - won a race. Belmont is best known for it's long stretch run. If you remember last year at Lonestar Park in Texas, the distance between the turn and the finish line was quite short. At Belmont, even if your horse is not necessarily near the front turning for home, he still has a chance if he has a dynamic "late kick". The stretch is 1097 feet compared to Lonestar's 934 ft. That's an extra 54 yards. There are two turf courses at Belmont. The Inner course which the Filly and Mare Turf will be run is still 1 3/16 miles in circumference. Post position at the distance will have no factor. The outer turf course is 11/2 miles in circumference - the Mile and the Turf will be run there. Post position will matter in the Mile. The middle post positions are the best here. A note of warning in this race -No pace setter running 1,2 or 3 has ever gone on to win the Mile in the last 3 B.C. races at Belmont. Also, give a small tick to these jockeys because they really know the turf well - Jerry Bailey, Edgar, Prado and John Velasquez, all regular Belmont riders. For the Mile and a half race post position will not matter. For the Sprint, the one(1) position has not been great for horses in this position at Belmont in the past, however they have redone the course and it's just as good as other post positions, so don't be afraid of the infamous "dead rail" as in the past at Belmont. You will have your contenders and your pretenders and my job will be to "try" to decide which is which. To try to make your job a little easier, I will give you a little write up on each horse entered and then look into my crystal ball and make a semi-intelligent decision on how I see the races shaping up. I will also include the infamous Lucky Lucc's Longshot, which by the way has happened to hit 3 times in the last 3 years. As an added bonus this year, I had guest handicapper "The Cooper" add his insight to the SPRINT and THE MILE. Favourites have won 57 out of 153 BC races or only 37.2% or another way is that favourites lose 62.8% of the time. Hope this tidbit of info works to your advantage. Once again, I hope that the horses treat you, instead of cheat you and beat you …Best of Luck. Now let's see how Lucky Lucc sees the 2005 rendition of the Breeders Cup. To quote one of Canada's greatest track announcers ever, the infamous Dan Loiselle - Ahhh they'rrrrrrrrre Offfffffff !!!!! The Juvenile Fillies - 1 1/16 miles on the main track - $1,000,000 purse Every year a fresh batch of two year olds, and every year I get panic attacks trying to figure out the male version and the female version of this race. Last year wasn't too difficult because Sweet Catomine was pretty much the class. This year, I don't think it's as black and white, so here goes: Adieu is an expensive filly that has won 4 of 5 races. Very impressive wins including the Frizette. Doesn't have the strongest Beyers but knows how to win and the Gr. 1 win was strong. Along the Sea was 2nd to Adieu in that race, however she only has a maiden win to her credit, but has competed in only G.r1 and 2's since. Not sold on her. Diamond Omi won the Oak Leaf out west but the time was not the greatest, so I'm keeping her a bit to the outside. Ex Caelis has been knocking in graded company since her maiden score but needs to pick it up a bit to be considered for the top. Folklore crushed the field in the Matron by 14, which will make her the probable favourite and a 99 Beyer is tough to argue. Adieu did beat her in the Spinaway back in late August so she is susceptible to lose. And will the extra distance make a difference? Knights Templar is a Woodbine based horse that ran a great last race. He is in much tougher here. Fringe player at best for Canada. Original Spin is 2 for 2 in the wins column and has to be looked at carefully. I realize she only won a grade 3 race but the time is strong and so is her form. Sensation loves this track and is 2 for 2 there. Never has gone 1 1/8 miles. That is the only question, but pedigree says she can go. So "Caveat Emptor" - Buyer Beware. Get a price. She Says It Best is an interesting horse. Caught a slow track at the Albiacides Gr. 2 and went wire to wire in a pedestrian 1:49:1. If she is near the front to start, she can be dangerous. Wild Fit was in perfect position to win the Oak Leaf and just couldn't get it done. This horse should be undefeated. I think she will do OK in this race. How Lucky Lucc sees the Juvenile Fillies: 1)Wild Fit 2) Adieu 3) Folklore Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Sensation The Juvenile - 1 1/16 mile -on the main track $1,500,000 Here we go again - Round two of the panic attacks -more two year olds to handicap. Don't be discouraged after these two races. You may be Zero for 2 but still feel good about yourself. Try to have fun with Juveniles and don't try to hard because there is more racing -real racing ahead. So here is my rendition of the terrible two's - male style. Brother Derek won the Norfolk in a pretty good time but I only see as a long shot. Dawn of War won the Futurity at 36-1 odds. Nice but can he repeat. I say he can be very competitive. He has 3 firsts and 3 seconds in 6 races. Not bad and you will get a price. Dr. Pleasure has little to go on. Won his maiden and has not raced in Graded company. Hard to figure out. First Samurai will be your favourite.5 for 5 in wins including 2 Gr. 1 wins. The package for sure. Henny Hughes was undefeated until he met First Samurai and now came second to that one twice. Will need for Samurai to stumble a bit for a chance at the top. Ivan Denosovich is an invader who can be competitive to the aforementioned. Has had Gr. 1 and 2 races under his belt and is 4 for 5 in the money. Lots to like. Jealous Profit is a maiden and after this race will continue to be a maiden. I think he's in a bit over his head. Leo has raced in graded company and done OK. Will get some support but I don't see better than 12 to 15-1. Very playable as a longshot. Private Vow has won 3 in a row and a Gr. 2 in last. Beyers are getting stronger and now goes for the home run. Never has gone the distance. Still, very playable. Set Alight has some serious dirt pedigree, so beware this guy. You will get a great price. Very very playable. Sorcerer's Stone is undefeated and looks awfully good on paper. I like this horse for a top 3 finish. Stevie Wonderboy hasn't raced since September and that is worrisome. Has been training OK but the layoff prevents me from backing him. Stream Cat has weak beyers which makes me look elsewhere. Has a bit of a kick and unless you get a blistering pace, I don't see him at the finish. Superfly didn't like the slop in the Champagne, so I'm throwing it out. Still too tough to gauge this guy's ability. How Lucky Lucc sees the Juvenile: 1) First Samurai 2) Private Vow 3) Sorcerer's Stone Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Set Alight The Filly And Mare Turf - 1 1/4 mile on the Turf - $1,000,000 Every year this race turns out that the 1st or 2nd place horse is in double-digit odds usually, which makes for a great exactor payoff, except for 2004 when Ouija Board won at less than even money for first, however the second place horse Film Maker was 17 to 1. I still like long shots in this race. There are a few in here that were here a year ago. As Yogi Berra once said, "I'm having Deja Vous all over again". Angara won the Beverly D, which was great but was last in the Flower Bowl, which makes me scratch my head. Has had an up and down year. I'm going to pass on her recent form although she has won 3 of 10 races this year. Favourable Terms was crushed in her last in Britain over a soft course. She did win the Nassau in Britain in July so that puts her in the running. You will get great odds. Film Maker was second a year ago in this race and has been relatively consistent this year with 4 out of 5 in the money including 1 win in a Gr. 3 event. Lost by a length in the Flower Bowl. Don't discard. Can be dangerous again and expect good odds again. Flip Flop was second to MegaHertz in the Yellow Ribbon. Beyers are competitive but just not quite up to these. I'll pass on this girl for the win, but I might back her in the money. Intercontinental is a strong Miler and would be my choice if it was a mile but it's not. It's a mile and a quarter, which makes a world of a difference. 6 for 6 in the money with 4 wins. May be worth a gamble at better than 10 to 1. Karen's Caper just missed in the QEII Cup, a Gr. 1 event. The horse can stalk which makes her an interesting pick. She's been running in this company all year. You will get a good price. Luas Line was doing very well until the QEII race where she was winning and gave it up late.. There is still a lot to like. MegaHertz really disappointed last year in this race, Since then, she has been on a tear. 4 wins in 5 races including a Gr.1 win in the Yellow Ribbon and 3 Gr. 2 wins. Lots to like. She let me down a year ago...she better not this year. Mona Lisa must run like she did in her last in Paris to make it competitive. I'm going to pass, however may surprise a few others. Ouija Board, last years champ enters this race with only two races since. I don't think she is as good as she was a year ago but will be a formidable foe nonetheless. Riskaverse is another that competed here a year ago and did not do very well but she shocked in the Flower Bowl at 36 to 1. I think she is overmatched this time. Sundrop was way back in the Flower Bowl and made a good move to almost win but then faded at the wire. Interesting choice but I will pass. Wend is a very steady horse and consistent. Won 6 in row before losing in the Beverly D. Will need her race of a lifetime to beat these. One never knows..Wonder Again is great consistent hard knocking horse that will give you an honest ride each time. Hasn't won this year "yet" and may surprise when it counts. How Lucky Lucc Sees the Filly and Mare Turf 1) Megahertz 2) Flip Flop 3) Wonder Again 2) Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Wend The Breeders Cup Sprint -6 furlongs on the main track - $1,000,000 I'll be with you in a minute dear. Actually more like 1:08 and change. This is a quick race to determine the fastest horse and there are some good ones. To me, this has always been my hardest race to handicap, so here goes. Stay the course. Attila's Storm has 3 wins this year out of 5 at this distance but has not raced in graded company. No chance from where I'm standing. Battle Won is a very good horse. Has a chance for an upset seeing that the horse has never been out of the money in 7 races at this distance. Was second at the Bing Crosby and the Forego, two Gr. 1 races. Strong contender. Elusive Jazz has the magical 110 Beyer rating we all look for. Has 4 wins this year out of 13 and is 3 for 5 at the distance. He can be competitive if he repeats the Phoenix race. Gygistar, a millionaire is now six and is the home course prodigal son. HE loves the course, but the question would be could he really compete against these speed merchants. A year or two ago I would have said yes. You will get high odds. Imperialism is not known for his sprinting but did have a great win 2 back in the Gr. 2 O'Brien Handicap at 7F. A very fast pace and this guy will be closing fast. Don't leave out of superfecta. Lifestyle is in way over his head and other than an allowance win in 2004, shows very little else. Lion Tamer is 2 for 3 at this distance and another who will be flying late given the pace. Don't discard so easily. Will get some backing. Be careful. Lost in the Fog will be backed heavily and why not - 10 races, 10 wins. Automatic winner, right?...not so fast. There are a few in here that have the talent to catch this speed demon and if the pace is right, he better be looking. Top 3 for sure. Silver Train is a good one and the win in the Jerome proved that. Could be an upset winner at a good price. Let's not forget who set the track record at Belmont this year. Taste of Paradise pulled a monster upset in the Vosburgh at 26 to 1. Didn't think he would be close but he ran the race of his life. Can lightning strike twice. Wildcat Heir has a Gr. 1 win to his benefit, however that was his only race of the year. Now you want him to win the B.C. Sprint...Oh come on. THE COOPER OUTLOOK - Taste of Paradise had a big run in the Vosburgh, which has been a high profile prep race in past years. Worth noting, he came from the outside post in the field to win going away. Imperialism can do some damage based on the Gr II O'Brien, and did have Taste of Paradise in behind him in that one. Imperialism gets the Cooper Call as the Live Longshot play of the day ! How Lucky Lucc see The Sprint: 1) Silver Train 2) Lion Tamer 3) Lost in the Fog 2) Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Battle Won The Breeders' Cup Mile - 1 mile on the turf -$1,500,000 Purse If the Kentucky Derby is the most two exciting minutes in sports, then the Breeders Cup Mile is the most exciting minute and a half. This year's field of 12 will make most seasoned handicappers wish they had gone back to handicapping school and started over. The "trip" is what makes this race, not so much the talent, but don't get me wrong. To win this you need both - Talent and Trip. Remember that the horses that held the 1,2 and/or 3 positions at the half-mile mark in previous B.C Mile races at Belmont have NEVER gone on to win the race. So, with that said, I commence: Ad Valorem did not have a great first race in North America. Interesting to see how the second race is considering his good record overseas, however he is without a win and I will not be supporting this 3 year old. Artie Schiller went into this race a year ago as one of the favourites at less than 4 to 1. I had him third but he ended a disappointing 12th. Since then he is 5 for 5 in the money with Gr. 2 wins. He'll give you his best again. Funfair is undefeated in America and this year with a Gr. 2 win. He will be coming off the pace and will be threatening. Beware of this guy. Gorella is a good one. Has been running only in Graded Stakes Company with 2 wins. You will get good odds, but I may pass. Host is a good runner but with only 2 races you have to wonder why but he fired of the shelf in the Shadow with a great race. He'll have to be at the top of his game to win this however. Leroidesanimaux is an animal. 8 races in a row as a winner. Will no doubt be favourite and if he gets a half decent trip, should walk away with top prize. Could be low price of the day. Limehouse is not a turfer at all. Has had 1 race on the grass in 20. Why is he here? Beats me. Pass on this one. Major Cast is not a bad runner. May be a notch below some of the good ones, but will give you a hard run. Not a bad long-shot play. Sand Springs is a solid miler that shows consistency and a knack for being close. Backing this one would not be a bad thing. Singletary will get backing with his Oak Tree finish. Good stakes horse and can challenge the top guy for sure. After all he is the defending champ here. Has not won a Gr. 1 this year, which is troubling. Valixir is a great horse that has tailed a bit in his last 2. Earlier in the summer won the Gr. 1 Queen Anne Stakes, so that win merits respect. Will be medium sized odds. Perhaps 7 or 8 to 1. Whipper is another Euro with a ton of talent. Last year in this race is was in prime position sitting in 2nd at the half and then just tired late to end up 10th. Has been 3 for 5 in money. Puts himin the top 6 anyway. Depends on trip, trip trip. THE COOPER OUTLOOK - Host poses a threat here just based on the way he has come to this race. Surgery on a bone chip earlier this year is now behind him, and if the prep was any indication, this horse is ready to run a big one. Singletary, can definitely come back and repeat this year. The Oak Tree race showed that after being pinched back at the start, the horse could rate, and then took off when asked, and was hand ridden to any easy victory. Like Miesque, Lure, and Da Hoss, this horse can also become a two time winner of this race, and gets the Cooper nod to win a big race over Leroidesanimaux and Host in what should be a thrilling race. How Lucky Lucc sees the MILE: 1) Leroidesanimaux 2) Funfair 3) Valixir Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Major Cast THE DISTAFF - 1 1/8 mile - Main Track - Purse - $2,000,000 The Breeders Cup Distaff is going to see the return of last years champ trying to defend her crown again. This will be a great race. It always is. Ashado will try to become a back to back winner. No question she is a good horse but there are a few others that will have their say. Ashado is a strong horse that is always near or at the front. Her stats are great 18 out of 20 in the money with 12 wins - 4 Gr. 1 this year alone. Will no doubt be the favourite again. Capeside Lady has 2 wins of 5 races this year.Loves the track, and if a bit sloppy, can make her name known. Happy Ticket is a happy horse and why not. She has 10 wins in 12 and the other 2 times she was second. Has a Gr. 1 win this year and lost to Ashado by ½ length in the Beldame. Lots to like. Healthy Addition is a healthy filly with 4 wins in 8, 3 wins in a row and is steadily improving her Beyer numbers. Not sure if she'll take to the cool New York weather. Hollywood Story has run in nothing but stakes races with one Gr. 3 win. A very steady filly but like the one before, she is from the west coast and I see her just under these here. In the Gold comes off a Gr. 1 win in the Gazelle and is 8 for 8 in the money this year with 3 wins. Likes the course and be +a bit of a long shot, but there is positives with her. Will get a good price. Island Fashion isn't the horse she used to be. If she can go back and gain any of her previous years form, she would be a top contender. She is a wild card for me. No wins this year but has been knocking only to lose late. Could have won the Lady Secret Gr. 2 but was bumped in the straight and finished 3rd only ½ length out. Buyers beware. You'll get a price. Nothing But Fun is an undefeated 3-year-old filly that is 4 for 4. Has a Gr. 2 win and is moving way up in the talent pool. I can't recommend only because of how deep this field is. A shocker for sure if she wins. Pleasant Home is 6 for 7 in the money including 2 wins. She had 2 second place finishes in back to back Gr. 1 races. Slightly below Happy and Ashado. Society Selection has done OK this year with 4 of 6 in the money. She has only run Gr. 1 and 2 races. Was in prime stalking position in the Beldame but couldn't muster enough of a kick to get the job done. May give another chance if the price is right. Stellar Jayne has had limited action for this year but is 2 for 2 with 2 wins including the Gr. 1 Ruffian. Very Impressive. She was also 3rd in this race last year, so please respect her. Sweet Symphony seemed to have bounced in the Ruffian after taking the Gr. 1 Alabama. I'm expecting her to bounce back and be very competitive. Her 104 Beyer in the Alabama must be respected. Yolanda B. Too is winless in Stakes Company and I think she picked the wrong race to try to win her first. I'm not giving her any confidence. This is how Lucky Lucc sees the DISTAFF unfolding: 1) Happy Ticket 2) Ashado 3) Sweet Symphony Lucky Lucc's long shot - Island Fashion The Breeder's Cup Turf - 1 1/2 mile - on the turf - $2,000,000 Boy did I eat my words last year when Kittens Joy lost to a 27 to1 long shot named Better Talk Now who will try to repeat this again year. Can he win again this year. I'm saying no. To me, this is the most exciting of all the races. Lots of Euros, who want to show domination of the Turf over a long distance. There are a ton of great horses. Spin the wheel and hope your number comes up. Ace had a good race in the Turf Classic at the start of the month narrowly losing to Shakespeare and English Channel, both who are in here. He fits. Azamour is another invader that will be backed heavy because of his strong season two Gr. 1 races. His last, the Irish Champion stakes where he ended 5th as the favourite troubles me a bit, but there is still a lot to like. Bago, was 3rd in the Arc and has run nothing but Gr. 1 all year with 1 win and 5 for 5 in the money, but no wins since April. Another "caveat emptor"-buyer beware. Please not that this horse is 14 for 14 career in the money. Don't leave out of the tri's. Better Talk Now, last years champion is 6 for 7 this year with 4 wins with 2 of them being Gr. 1. Lots to like and was solid in the Man O' War. English Channel is having a great season with 4 wins although none at Gr. 1 level. Two seconds at that level makes him strong. Fourty Niners Son is a great stalker and I feel is getting better as his Beyers will indicate. I love is last 3 Gr. 1 races with 1 win, and 2nd, and a 3rd. Will be close to in the money and you will get half decent odds. Gun Salute has had a good year but has never gone the distance. I'm sure he is capable of it but I don't think I can back with so many good ones in this race. Laura's Lucky Boy has won twice this year but neither was in graded company so that puts me off him right from the start. No shot here. Leprechaun Kid has 1 win at Gr. 2 company but has not faced the likes he will see today. The six year old is out of his element. Shake the Bank is here for one reason - to try to be a pace setter for his stable mate-last years champ, Better Talk now. No other reason. Move on. Shakespeare is a tremendous horse. 5 for 5 lifetime and has won the Turf Classic. His winning time in that race was a solid 2:27, which will no doubt make him a favourite if not "the favourite". Shirocco, another Euro that would love a soft course. If it comes up that way, take a long look at him. He will be heard from. Either way, give him strong considerations. Silverfoot came 2nd to Better Talk Now in the United Nations Gr. 1, which was his best at Gr. 1 company. He would need a career best to come close here. Can't back him. How Lucky Lucc sees the Breeder's Cup Turf: 1) Azamour 2) Shakespeare 3) Bago Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Shirocco The Breeder's Cup Classic - 1 1/4 miles - main track - $4,000,000 The Super Bowl of horseracing! The big one - the granddaddy of them all, the capo di capi. A Bakers dozen horses entered and only one champ will be taking home 52% of the 2 million American greenbacks. Last year I had the first two in the right order. Hopefully I can do the same and even hit the 3rd placer to round out the triactor. Here we go. A Bit of Gold is Canada's entry in the big one. Will be a huge odds and rightfully so. Has Gr. 2 wins but did not enter a Gr. 1 race and that eliminates him for me. Borrego is a very good one with a super win in the Gr. 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. What A run. Came from way back with an enormous close to crush the field. Will get a lot of backing and rightfully so. Has 3 wins including 2 Gr. 1 races. Choctaw Nation is one of those guys that can come from the clouds if there is pace. I would not leave out of any exotics. The fact that he was 7 wide in the Pacific and got up for 4th from being 17 lengths back at 1st calling should tell you something about this guy. Lots to like at good odds. Flower Alley threw in a clunker at the Jockey Club but I will disregard that and give him a new shot. The win at the Travers and Jim Dandy still speaks volumes about him. Playable but be careful. Jack Sullivan has not won since Dubai in March. Has been running in Graded stakes company but I think I won't back him. Lord of the Game has 7 wins this year in 11 tries, one at Gr.2 and one at Gr. 3. But man is he stepping up in class. Very ambitious for the owners. Not for me. Oratorio has been winning across the pond in Gr. 1 races. Mind you they were all turf. Likes the distance. Could be interesting. Play if the price is right. I'm thinking 12 to 15 to 1 for a shot. Perfect Drift was here a year ago and came a respectable 4th. Has been participating in Graded company with a Gr. 2 win. If he runs a good race can be in the super again, but don't like for the top spot. Rock Hard Ten is on a roll with 4 in a row including 2 Gr. 1 and two Gr. 2 races. Will be backed by the public, but I will try to beat him today. Saint Liam has run 5 Gr. 1 in a row and won 3 of them. He will be the one to dispose of. His win in the Woodward makes him a fave and I understand why. Will sit of the pace, wait for his opening an attack. Top 3 for sure in my books. Sir Shackleton has run very well this year and is 5 of 8 in the money with 2 wins, but one Gr. 2 only. You will get great odds and with a decent run can be in the money. We'll see. Starcraft is a good one. If he runs here instead of the Turf, don't leave out. Why would he give up a shot at "for sure" Turf money to run here. The owners and trainer must feel very confident. Remember Volponi a few years ago. Same situation and He paid at 42 to 1. One of my best wins ever. There is a lot to like with him in here. including back-to-back Gr. 1 races. Suave is a consistent runner who was closing in the Jockey Club. Will give you a run every time, which you must appreciate it. A good trip can put him in the mix. Don't discard and you'll get the odds. Sun King is a good one, but I don't usually back 3 year olds in this race. The Penn Derby was a good win but he lost by 10 ½ in the Jockey Club. A bit over matched for me. Super Frolic is a little below these although the 3 wins makes him a bit competitive. Would need an all world effort just to make the money. Will pass. How Lucky Lucc sees the Breeder's Cup Classic: 1) Borrego 2) Saint Liam 3) Starcraft Lucky Lucc's Longshot - Choctaw Nation