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Lucky Lucc's Breeders' Cup Picks Welcome to the 5th annual edition of Lucky Lucc's Breeders Cup handicapping challenge. This year seems to be more difficult than the last few due to the fact that there are almost full fields in every race. The good news is that the payoffs are definitely going to be real good. Where is there money to make? Like every year, every race is different, yet things almost stay the same. Are the favourites going to win every race? Not a chance. Then who shall I pick, you may ask yourself. My job is to try to determine the contenders from the pretenders. Also remember - I go to the track to "beat" the favourite not "bet" the favourite. This year's races are in Louisville Kentucky, home of the Kentucky Derby. This will be the 6th time that Churchill has held the Cup. There are a few things to keep in mind about Churchill Downs. The stretch is long. Real long. In fact, one of the longest at 1,234-and-a-half feet. Belmont is 1,097 feet from the final turn to the finish and Woodbine is 975 feet. So, if you are sitting a bit back on the final turn, don't give up. Your horse still can be there at the end. For the races that are 1 1/16 of a mile, the outside horses may find it difficult because the first turn comes up pretty quick which means your horse may be squeezed back a bit and it will have quite a bit of ground to make up. For the longer races, there is no disadvantage or advantage. The biggest problem with Churchill can come into play for the MILE. The turf course turns are tight - very tight. Therefore, the outside horses are going to have a bit of difficult time if they are not near the lead. Remember, in this race, you don't want the lead early. A stalking trip is the best. So make sure you look for a stalker. The weather is calling for a partly cloudy day and 12 degrees, which is nice and cool for the Euro horses. They love the cool weather. They have done pretty good in the past at Churchill. Don't bet them every race. I just want you to make sure you just don't overlook them. As an added bonus this year, I have added the synopsis of another stellar handicapping expert and good friend who's traveled a few paddocks in his day, "Backstretch Coop" who gives us his take on The Sprint, The Mile and The Classic. The one thing we can always agree on, is that we will always disagree in the big races. And so without further adieu, I am proud to present Lucky Lucc's 2006 Breeders Cup predictions. Again, as always, I hope the horses treat you instead of cheat you and beat you. Race 1 - Juvenile Fillies - 1 1/16 miles on the main track ADHRHYTHM - 5 for 5 in the money with 3 wins. Beyers aren't strong but horse knows the winners circle APPEALING ZOMBIE - 3 for 4 in the money with 2 wins. Won the Spinaway G.1 race . Gave it up late in last race at the same distance BEL AIR BEAUTY - Won a Grade 2 race at 48 to 1. Great pedigree. Has only raced on Polytrack. You will get good odds. CASH INCLUDED - 2 for 3 in the money with 2 wins. Will probably be morning fave. Last race in California was brilliant . A repeat of that could be all she needs. COTTON BLOSSOM - 2 wins out of 4 including a G.3 win ..Was bumped in the G2 Alcibiades so a good trip can make her close DREAMIN of ANNA - 3 starts-3wins. Won a G3 race. Strong beyers. 2 of her races were on turf, so don't automatically pick. Look hard at this one GATORIZE - 2 out of 3 wins this year but showed little in stakes company. Going to pass on this gal HER MAJESTY - 2 races -1 maiden win . Not a ton of info to go on. Beyers were a bit slow but the horse is going in the right direction. Great pedigree. Could be a great long shot LILLY CARSON - comes in off the eligible list. 1 maiden win but was strong in the G1 Frizette. Just gave it up late, which makes me think the distance may have been too much OCTAVE - 2 wins in 4 -2 nd's in 4. Strong contender. Almost won the Matron and one of the wins was at Churchill but it was only at 4 ˝ f. QUICK LITTLE MISS - only 1 win in 5 but the last was good for the fact that she closed well. Will need to be a bit closer to contend. SATULAGI - weird placing considering she has only ran on turf - 5 for 9 in the money with 2 wins. Be careful here. Maybe a side bet at best SHE'S INCLUDED - if she can run back to the Delmar race two back can become competitive. You will get great odds. Another pretty good bomb SUTRA - Won the Frizette in pedestrian time. Her Beyers are not strong so I'm going to discard her from my tix. How Lucky Lucc sees this race: 1. OCTAVE 2. QUICK LITTLE MISS 3. CASH INCLUDED Lucky Lucc's Long shot - HER MAJESTY Race 2 - Juveniles - 1 1/16 on the main track CP WEST -Came close in the G2 Futurity after his maiden win. Strong Beyers and very strong pedigree puts him possibly in the mix as a middle long shot. CIRCULAR QUAY - Has 2 wins at this course as a sprinter. Won the G1 Hopeful and was second in the Breeders Futurity. Will be a close fave. GOT THE LAST LAUGH - won his first 2 races including a G3. Disappointed in the Champagne Stakes. May need an off track to produce. Can't recommend. GREAT HUNTER - 6 for 6 in the money with 2 wins including a G.1 race in last. Finished 2nd the other 4 times. Another one who will get some backing. KING OF THE ROXY - and yet we have another good one. Great Beyers a G 2 win and a G2 2nd. Pick your poison. I like this guy too MALT MAGIC - Pulled up in the last in the G2 Norfolk, so I would disregard. His maiden win was strong. We will see if this guy really has the magic. PEGASUS WIND - will probably "fly" to the lead but can he go the distance - He tried in the G1 Champagne and lost it late. I'm going against but may leave in for the super. PRINCIPLE SECRET - 3 for 3 in the money and will be backed due to those 95 and 96 Beyers. Very consistent runner ...so far SCAT DADDY - Winner of the Champagne and another who could take the top spot. 3 wins in 4 with a 2nd. A really good one. Top 3 for me SKIP CODE - A local Toronto runner tries the big time. The Beyers will have to improve Can't back from his performances STORMELLO - A horse that seems to be improving. Ok pedigree but I love the way he's moving. Won the Norfolk and is 4 for 5 in the money. Should get medium sized odds. A great play at 8-1 or better STREET SENSE - Gave up the lead late in the Breeders Futurity after coming off the pace. Did he go to quick? Another wait and see candidate. TEUFLESBERG - this would be a shock but then again they're 2 year olds. 1 for 8 in wins and is 0 for 3 at Churchill. Will go huge odds UD GHETTO - Upset at 18-1 in G3 event. I think may be over his head with this group. I will pass on this guy How Lucky Lucc sees this race 1. KING OF THE ROXY 2. GREAT HUNTER 3. SCAT DADDY Lucky Lucc's Long shot - CP WEST Race 3 - Fillies and Mares - 1 3/8 miles on the turf DANCING EDIE - 5 of 7 in the money with three wins including G1 ..will go out to the lead and try to steal it . Slightly over her head however. FILM MAKER - 3rd try at this race - 2nd in 2004 -3rd in 2005. If there is speed to run at which I believe there will be, you can't just toss her out just missed in her last 2 - both at G1 level. GERMANCE - I would throw out her last. She was bumped at the start and all she did before that is win 4 out of 5 and come second in the other. You will get good odds. Please don't leave her out of your exotics. HONEY RIDER - strong horse with 4wins of 6 this year. Lots to like however, she may not be quite as strong as her performance dictates. There are a few better ones but you never know. These middle long shots surprise all the time. Personally, I like her MAURALAKANA - 2 good North American races but no wins. Puts her in as a long shot but then again she's only 3 years old. More maturing to do. MY TYPHOON - A classic in and out horse has won at G2 and 3 this year but is a little out of her element. Can't recommend especially since she has never gone the distance but she is 2 for 2 at Churchill, and both were graded stakes win. Headscratcher?? OUIJA BOARD - won this 2 years ago and came 2nd last year because it went too wide on the turn. Will definitely be backed and may be short price of day along with Bernadini in the Classic. Has only raced G1 this year and has 2 wins and 2 2nd's. The fave for sure. QUIET ROYAL - no wins this year in 4 attempts. - One race in North America in the QE II and was 3rd. Not a bad race and you have trainer Pletcher. Could be a bomb for you. SATWA QUEEN - 4 for 4 in the money with a G2 win and 3 2nd's. A very valid long shot. I would include her in exotics for sure. WAIT A WHILE - 6 of 8 in the money with 5 wins including 2 G1's. She seems to peaking at the right time. A 3 year old with toughness. Will I back her? I think I might. Will be one of the favourites How Lucky Lucc sees this race: 1. WAIT A WHILE 2. GERMANCE 3. SATWA QUEEN Lucky Lucc's Long shot - MY TYPHOON Race 4 - Sprint - 6 furlongs on the main track AREYOUTALKINTOME - 8 of 12 in the money this year but only 2 wins - and neither were in Graded company. Won't recommend him ATTILA'S STORM - A real good runner but has only had two races this year. Note that he has 4 wins lifetime at this distance and was 3rd in one of those races to the probable fave Henny Hughes. Good long shot. Place in the exotics BORDONARO - is a real monster of a horse. Pure power. Lots and lots to like. He will be tough to beat. I'm going to try but I think he warrants top 2 or 3 position. FRIENDLY ISLAND - Was 3rd to Bordonaro in April this year, so makes him a legit long shot 4 for 7 in the money but only 1 win at a G3. Not bad HENNY HUGHES - On paper, this looks like a match race against Bordonaro but like any sport, that's why they play the games. He is 3 for 3 this year with 2 G 1's and 1 G2 wins. Lots to like but a hook up in the lead with Bordonaro makes them both susceptible to burning each other out. Be Careful. KELLY'S LANDING - no G1 races this year in 7 but does have a G3 win. A definite long shot but with 2 of the best sprinters here. Note for you long shot players. This horse is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs LEWIS MICHAEL - don't know why he is here ..Has NO CHANCE of winning…and I rarely ever say that.. Shows one win at 35k allowance. Insulting to him here. MALIBU MINT - nothing jumps out right away but in 10 races this year he has shown 3 wins including a G1 event. Will be huge odds but could be nice odds to round out a tri or super. NIGHTMARE AFFAIR - 10 races - 4 wins and they were in a row. Including a G2 event.. Didn't do well in the Forego but is a good Tier 2 sprinter. I will pass on this guy POMEROY - Only two races this year but one was a G1 Forego win which gives him instant credibility.. Will like the distance and a respectable long shot to pull off an upset. SIREN LURE - 5 of 6 wins this year including grade 1 event. Strong west coast horse. Loves coming off the pace and if there's a speed duel up front this guy will be coming late. Beware!! THOR'S ECHO - Lost by a length to Bordonaro in the last G1 race. His best ever. Is he that good. Without a win in 5 I will pass on him TOO MUCH BLING - 4 of 5 wins but no G1's this year. Only G2's and 3. Has good speed and can upset as a long shot. Don't disregard. Good for the exotics. WAR FRONT - A great 2nd place horse. Has done that 5 times in 6 this year. Has only 1 win this year but was second to Pomeroy and Henny Hughes. A contender at long odds, so a good exotics guy for sure How Lucky Lucc sees this race 1. SIREN LURE 2. TOO MUCH BLING 3. BORDONARO Lucky Lucc's Long shot - ATTILA's STORM Backstretch Coop's Comments: Yes, Henny Hughes looks tough to beat, and is a perfect 3 for 3 this year...but...could get tangled up early in this race with the likes of Bordonaro and others, so I'm looking for a horse to stalk the pacesetters and then pounce in the final furlong. I have settled on Pomeroy...lightly raced this year, due to surgery over the winter, but appears to be a new horse now, and disposed of a strong field in the Forego back on Sept. 2. Pomeroy gets the Cooper call to pull the mild upset in the Sprint. Final Picks 1) Pomeroy 2) Henny Hughes 3) Siren Lure 4) Kelly's Landing Race 5 - Mile - 1 mile on the turf course AD VALOREM - Has had only one North American race and that one was a good one. Will need a lot of pace to run. Has had a G1 win at the distance. I think a step below the top ones. ARAAFA - 2 G1 wins is impressive and just lost to George Washington which is entered in the Breeders Cup. Lots to like here. ARAGORN - This guys has won 4 in a row and will be backed. Two G1 wins and 2 G2's makes him in the hunt for top spot. AUSSIE RULES - Has drawn a tough post position. One race in North America only, but he won. Even if he gets off quick,- I can't recommend BADGE of SILVER - He's not a true miler and I think that will hurt him in the long run or in this case the short run. Has race in G1 company but results were below par COURTNALL - will be at long odds, but beware -see the fact that he was second to ARAGORN in last race. He could surprise in the exotics. A bit of a stretch for top spot ECHO OF LIGHT - 3 for 4 in wins with a G2 and G3. He's got a great jock in Dettori. Could be one who shocks, but I'm staying away. FREE THINKING - Only 1 win out of 6. nothing jumps out at me. Just a solid horse that is OK. Can't back this one either GORELLA - A gorilla of a horse. Will be the fave for sure. Won the BeverlyD in convincing fashion. Lost last year by 3/4 of a length in this race. He wants redemption. IVAN DENISOVICH - One good G1 race in North America against so-so company. Will pass on this guy. MICHAEL LEWIS - I truly believe this guy shouldn't be in this race. Doesn't have the credentials LIBRETTIST - not sure what happened in last but before that this guy was a beast of a horse with 5 wins in a row including 2 G1's. Lots to like but the 13 hole could be tough to overcome. Buyer beware. MIESQUE'S APPROVAL - A solid miler who can make his presence felt. If you get 10-1 or more he could be worth a few shillings. He has 4 wins in 6 this year, so he knows where the finish line is. Good long shot ROB ROY - One win in 5 and that was in April. Has run in G 1 company this year, but his last in G1 company was ok as he finished 2nd . Another one who will give you fair market value. SILENT NAME - A good trip can put this guy close. Last race was bad because he was 10 wide. I like this guy also in the exotics and who knows, he could win. He won't be silent. SLEEPING INDIAN - Although 2 wins in 3 this year, this guy has b=never won a G1. This invader needs to step it up to be competitive. SUPER FROLIC - Lost last 3 to Lava Man who of course is in the Big One. Will be at huge odds for sure. Will need an all world effort to be close. How Lucky Lucc sees the race 1. MIESQUE APPROVAL 2. ARAGORN 3. LIBRETTIST Lucky Lucc Long shot - SILENT NAME Backstretch Coop's Comments: When the morning favourite can only be tabbed at 4-1 , you know the field is wide open, and there appears to be a dozen horses here with a good reason to win this outright. Gorella looks tough, but had to work for a nose victory last out in the First Lady at Keenland. Araafa comes in off a second place finish in the QE II stakes at Ascot, beaten by George Washington, who is running in the Classic later on. so this horse must be accorded tons of respect. Aussie Rules ran a masterful race in the Shadwell under Turf master Garrett Gomez, and they are once again paired up here, so your guess is as good as mine. The Cooper nod goes to Aussie Rules from the outside post in a thriller. Final Picks : 1) Aussie Rules 2) Araafa 3) Librettist 4) Gorella Race 6 - Distaff - 1 1/8 mile on the main track ASI SIEMPRE - The Spinster was very slow. 2 out of 6 wins this year including the last G1. Again, I wasn't impressed at the outcome. I'm going to pass on this girl. BAGDARIA - Had a good race in last in a G3 event. Has won 3 G3 events this year. One of those that can pull a major upset if the race sets up right. BALLETTO - The King of second place. That is a serious problem . A great exotic proposition. Don't forget that. BUSHFIRE - A good horse that can be competitive. The Beyers are strong but not over the top that may be needed. Throw out last. A good long shot FLEET INDIAN - Without question, one of the shortest prices of the day. 6 for 6 this year with 2 G1's. He will be difficult to beat. Lots to like. HAPPY TICKET - Couldn't get going in last due to a slow time. This girl can be very close but the post position may hurt. Hopefully not. 5 for 6 in the money with 2 1st and a 3 2nd's. In the exotics HEALTHY ADDICTION - 4 for 7 in the win category this year makes this one a good medium shot. Knows how to win and that makes her a strong candidate for the win HOLLYWOOD STORY - Can't back this one on this years form. Only 1 win but it was at G1. She has only ever run G1,2,or 3 races. Nothing wrong if you like her in the form LEMONS FOREVER - Has raced in 5 straight G1 races - but has not fared to well. If the pace is fast this guy can come from way back . If the pace is regular, please keep your money and use it elsewhere. PINE ISLAND - A great stalker - Strong in Graded company - I like him. He will be a relatively short price. But I think he's too good to pass in the top 3. POOL LAND - 4 for 6 in the money including the Ruffian. A good race . The only problem is that she likes the lead and if she goes to fast then she may not have left in the tank- Another iffy one. ROUND POND - Interesting horse. Early this year and last year was a dynamo. Very Good long shot. Has 4 wins for the year. SHARP LISA - Loves graded races - I can't see her in this. She is out of her element. Pass SPUN SUGAR - a great race 2 back . 3 wins in 5. A good middle shot. 10 -1 or better can make you some money. How Lucky Lucc sees the race: 1. PINE ISLAND 2. FLEET INDIAN 3. SPUN SUGAR Lucky Lucc's Long shot - ROUND POND Race 7 - Turf - 1 1/2 miles on the turf BETTER TALK NOW - 2 wins in 4 and both at G2. Showed little in this race last year. Strong horse in its prime with almost $3 million in the bank. Did not fair well in G2. Pass CACIQUE - Will be bet pretty heavy 5 for 6 in the money with 2 G1 wins. Only concern is that he has never gone the distance. This concerns me. Beat English Channel twice and was beaten by English Channel twice. I'll side for the latter. ENGLISH CHANNEL - I believe will be the fave. 4 wins in 6 this year with 3 G1's makes her a rightful fave. Cacique beat both times at 1 1/4 miles. This is a furlong further. Top 2 for me. GO DEPUTY - Consistent is the best word 3 wins, 5 2nd's and a 3rd in 9 starts. All in graded races. You will probably get 6-9 to 1. Witnessed her try in the Canadian Int'l and that was a great race. Can be there for top 3 HURRICANE RUN - Can argue the low price of this race with a 4th place finish in the Arc d'Triomphe. Won the King George this year and he is 2 for 6 in wins and 5 for in the money. All in great Graded company. Will have a new jockey. Beware. ICY ATLANTIC - Can't see here, only because he has never competed with these types before. Lost to English Channel by 18 1/2 lengths in last, his only G1 race in his life RED ROCKS - An Irish invader that warrants respect. 6 for 6 in the money with 2 wins. Will go off at slightly more than 10-1. A good solid mid long shot player. Look long at him. RUSH BAY - Another who may be searching just for fame. He's one of those that has great success at this track and if you like to play the "horses for courses" angle this guy is your long shot pick...I might just do that. He can handle the distant, but how about the pace? SCORPION - an invader that I can make heads or tails out of. Only 1 race this year and that was a 2nd place finish in October in a non graded event. But he has a good past. Don't overlook. Can be the party spoiler for many SILVERFOOT - 1 win in 6 tries. And that was a G3 attempt back in May. I'm going to pass on this guy. Out of his element. Wishful thinking for the owner T.H. APPROVAL - 6 of 7 in the money with 3 wins all at G2. His last was great race and narrowly lost out to The Tin Man, who got injured or would have been in the classic. Lots to like here also. A steady horse indeed. Can surprise for the top spot. How Lucky Lucc sees the race 1) GO DEPUTY 2) ENGLISH CHANNEL 3) RED ROCKS Lucky Lucc's Long shot: RUSH BAY Race 8 - Classic - 1 1/4 miles on the main track BERNARDINI - is a beast, I shouldn't say anymore but I have to. All he does is win win win. Will be the prohibitive favourite and rightfully so. Tough to go against. BROTHER DEREK - A good horse that was 4th in the Preakness behind the top one and lost by 15 lengths. IS 3 wins in 7 this year and the winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Will be at long odds with many today. DAVID JUNIOR - an invader who has had 3 races this year. All G1's and has won twice. In 12 races he has won more than $4 million. He's also a good one and you will get 10-1 and more FLOWER ALLEY - The last two have been horrible. Prior to that this guy was pretty good. Can he find his 3 year old form. He' was 2nd in this last year. A bit of a head scratcher. You decide. GEORGE WASHINGTON - Mr. President, you have the right to argue for the win. What I don't understand is why this horse isn't running in the Mile. He would have been the fave. But knowing the owner and ego, he wants to try to beat the Sheik who owns Bernardini. He has never raced on dirt and that's a concern. I'm not sure how I will look at him. Has 2G1 wins out of 4 races. Could he be another Volponi GIACOMO -Pull the heart strings. We all know his story from the Kentucky derby last year. He came from out of the clouds. There will be sentimental backing. He needs a blistering pace again on the front for any hope. Don't see him...Boo on me INVASOR - This one loves North America and is 3 for 3 with 3 wins -all at G1 level. He will be giving it his all against Berdardini. Remember - he has only lost once in his life in 9 races. I Like him LAVA MAN - Only 7 for 7 this year with 7 wins …If you are at the slots, you have to love this guy -4 G1 wins this year. Should get 6 or 8 to 1 or so. May have peaked early. He's a west coaster who has talent LAWYER RON - 5 wins in 7 with no G1's and that's troublesome for me. Did not face this type of competition all year. Will pass on him PERFECT DRIFT - This is the 5th trip for this guy in this race. This gelding is nothing if not a trooper. No wins this year but 4 2nd's gives him a bit of credibility. He is 7 years old and time may have passed this one by. I'm not going to endorse. PREMIUM TAP - 6 of 8 in the money this year with a win in the G1 Woodward. IS a steady one but May be in slightly over his head. There are others that I like SUAVE - Had nothing in the Woodward, however was 5th in this last year and was right at the front for over a mile. The pace was honest but I don't believe this guy will be there at the end. SUN KING - Lead this race for the half last year before packing it in. This year has been hot and cold with 1 win in 7 tries. A very good horse, who can make the exotics fun. Beware of the possible upset. He loves coming off the pace How Lucky Lucc sees this race 1) SUN KING 2) BERNARDINI 3) INVASOR Lucky Lucc's Long shot: SUAVE Backstretch Coop's Comments: One word - Bernardini - but there will be challengers, but in my opinion, none will get by this guy . Let's see who might round out the Exactor . Invasor proved he is the real deal with three straight Grade 1 victories , and has won 8 of 9 races lifetime. Perfect Drift always seems to show up for the big ones and run like a monster too . Sun King has shown a liking to running from well off the pace, and this could be a fast classic, so could pick up a share late, and as for Lava Man ? I predict he gets left in the West Coast haze, and is nowhere to be seen at the finish. The Cooper nod goes to Bernardini. Final Picks: 1) Bernardini 2) Invasor 3) Sun King 4) Perfect Drift