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Football Betting Preview - The Playoff Races

AFC
1. San Diego 11-2 AFC West Champ
2. Indianapolis 10-3 AFC South Leader
3. Baltimore 10-3 AFC North Leader
4. New England 9-4 AFC East Leader
5. Cincinnati 8-5 First Wildcard
6. Jacksonville 8-5 Second Wildcard
7. NY Jets 7-6
8. Kansas City 7-6
9. Denver 7-6
10. Buffalo 6-7
11. Pittsburgh 6-7
12. Tennessee 6-7
13. Miami 6-7
14. Houston 4-9 Eliminated
15. Cleveland 4-9 Eliminated
16. Oakland 2-11 Eliminated

NFC
1. Chicago 10-2 NFC North Champion
2. New Orleans 9-4 NFC South Leader
3. Seattle 8-5 NFC West Leader
4. Dallas 8-5 NFC East Leader
5. NY Giants 7-6 First Wildcard
6. Philadelphia 7-6 Second Wildcard
7. Atlanta 7-6
8. Minnesota 6-7
9. Carolina 6-7
10. St. Louis 5-7
11. Green Bay 5-8
12. San Francisco 5-8
13. Arizona 4-9 Eliminated
14. Washington 4-9 Eliminated
15. Tampa Bay 3-10 Eliminated
16. Detroit 2-11 Eliminated

Playoff Position Tiebreakers
Indianapolis is the No. 2 seed in the AFC based on a better strength of victory number than Baltimore (.504 to .477).
Cincinnati is the No. 5 seed in the AFC based on a better conference record than Jacksonville (6-3 to 5-4).
Seattle is the No. 3 seed in the NFC based on a better conference record than Dallas (6-3 to 5-3).
The Giants are the No. 5 seed in the NFC based on head-to-head wins over Philadelphia and and Atlanta.
Philadelphia is the No. 6 seed in the NFC based on a better conference record than Atlanta (6-3 to 5-4).

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NFL Football Betting

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The Really Big Book of Football

Chalk Talk will look at second and third tier players and help you make a decision to start them or let them ride the bench. Let's face it, anyone can pencil in LaDainian Tomlinson or Marvin Harrison, but what about those No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 fantasy players on your roster? You know; the ones in which you need to look at, analyze the match-ups and then look at it again! Yep, those are the ones! The ones in which we read and reread the latest news and notes and still wonder what to do! Well, we're here to give you a hand with those every week in Chalk Talk's "Who to Start and Who to Bench" column, though we admit, it's become more of a Strong Plays/Weak Plays column. This report is merely a taste of well-researched team reports from KFFL.com's Award Winning site. We take a typical fantasy roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT and break the players down. If you enjoy these reports, you'll enjoy KFFL's weekly newsletter as well as our other services covering all the team's key players, game situation and more! These reports are excerpts taken from our weekly team analysis (over 160 pages of breakdowns)!

STRONG PLAY - QUARTERBACK
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams
There were some questions surrounding Rivers' inexperience in leading the Chargers this season. If the last four games are any indication of his ability, then he is probably further along than most people thought. Since Week 4, Rivers has been completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 247 yards, 1.8 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game. The Rams head to southern California this week to try to stop Rivers and the Chargers. The key word here is "try." You see, in their last three games, the Rams have allowed 256 yards and two touchdowns per game to quarterbacks. Meanwhile, they have only picked off 0.67 passes per game. Rivers should be able to pick apart the Rams defense. He is a strong play as your starting quarterback.

STRONG PLAYS - RUNNING BACK
Wali Lundy, Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
The Texans pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season in beating the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Not only did they win, they may have found their starting running back in Lundy. The rookie back carried the ball 19 times for 93 yards and one touchdown. He added four catches for 15 yards to give him a total of 108 offensive yards versus the Jaguars. Undoubtedly that was a pleasant surprise after Lundy had been inactive for the previous two games. In the snorer of the week, Lundy and the Texans will face the Titans. This is why fantasy football is good for the game, because no one would care about this game otherwise. Anyway, Lundy has a good shot at running over a squad that has allowed 137 rushing yards, 31 receiving yards and 1.67 touchdowns per game to running backs since Week 4 (three games). Give Lundy a shot as your No. 1 or your No. 2 fantasy back this week.

Leon Washington, New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Anyone who has kept an eye on the Jets backfield this season knows Washington should be their featured running back. While Kevan Barlow is still listed atop the depth chart, Washington has been utilized more than Barlow the last four games (17 plays to Barlow's 12 plays per game). Washington has toted the rock much better too, averaging 80 rushing yards on only 16 carries per game. That's a hefty 5.1 yards-per-carry average. He is also scoring 0.5 times per game since Week 4. Earlier we highlighted some of the strong defensive numbers for the Browns. Now, we get the chance to show why they are 1-5. Against running backs, the Browns are giving up 145 yards on 28 carries per game since Week 4 (three games). Tack on 12 receiving yards and 1.33 total touchdowns per game and you have a strong case for starting Washington as your No. 1, or at least a No. 2, running back this week.

STRONG PLAYS - WIDE RECEIVER
Marques Colston and Joe Horn, New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens
It has been no secret that we are pretty high on Colston to continue to be a hot receiver this season. While his numbers have cooled a bit, he is still averaging four receptions, 70 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game since Week 4 (three games). Horn's numbers are almost identical to Colston's in the same span five receptions, 74 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. This may come as a surprise but Colston and Horn are solid options against the Ravens this week. In their last three contests, the Ravens are allowing 11 receptions, 158 yards and 1.33 touchdowns per game to the position. Colston is the better option here as a No. 1 fantasy receiver, with Horn as your second option as a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy wideout.

Eric Parker, San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams
With the success Rivers has had this season, someone needs to catch the ball. Since Week 4, Parker has become the third option in the passing game (behind tight end Antonio Gates and tailback LaDainian Tomlinson, but ahead of receiver Keenan McCardell). His numbers aren't great, because of his goose egg in the touchdown department, but he is averaging 4.5 receptions for 63 yards per game. Parker has a big upside against the Rams this week. Since Week 4 (three games), the Rams are giving up 216 yards and two touchdowns on 15 receptions per game to receivers. While we like Parker's upside this week, he simply isn't consistent enough to be one of your studs. Use him as a No. 2 or No. 3 wideout this week.

STRONG PLAY - TIGHT END
Courtney Anderson, Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
We have rarely recommended any players from the Raiders this season for obvious reasons. However, if you need tight end help this week for whatever reason and can get your hands on Anderson, get him into your lineup. He has posted some decent numbers since Week 4, averaging two receptions, 32 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game, and we like his match-up against the Steelers. The Raiders have targeted Anderson an average of three times per outing (4.9 percent of the offense) overall, which includes an average of 0.3 targets per contest inside the red zone (4.7 percent). The Steelers' defense has allowed an average of 4.67 receptions, 66 receiving yards and 1.33 touchdowns per game to enemy tight ends. In case you missed it, Pittsburgh allowed six catches, 117 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Atlanta Falcons tight end Alge Crumpler this past Sunday. Consider Anderson a strong play as a mid-tier No. 1 tight end or Bye-week replacement.

STRONG PLAY - PLACE KICKER
Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams
Kaeding's numbers have gone up since head coach Marty Schottenheimer scrapped his conservative "Marty ball" offense and opened things up, and we're expecting another strong performance from Kaeding this week. Since Week 4, he has averaged 9.8 kicking points per game while successfully converting averages of three extra points and 2.3 field goals per contest. During the last month (three games played), the Rams defense has yielded an average of 10 kicking points per outing. Enemy kickers have successfully converted averages of three extra points and 2.33 field goals per game against this unit. Kaeding is a strong start and is one of our highest-rated kickers this week.

STRONG PLAY - DEFENSIVE TEAM
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Packers defense has struggled this season, especially against the pass, but we like this unit against a struggling Arizona offense that showed no spark against the lowly Oakland Raiders this past Sunday. During the last month (three games played), the Green Bay defense has yielded an average of 26 offensive points per game, while notching averages of 3.33 sacks, one interception and 0.67 recovered fumbles per contest. The Cardinals offense looks like it has an emotional hangover from that stunning last-second loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 6. Although quarterback Matt Leinart has a promising future, the rookie will struggle at times - especially on the road. Arizona's offense has scored an average of 14 points per game since Week 4. During that span, this unit has allowed an average of three sacks per contest, thrown an average of 1.3 interceptions per game and lost an average of one fumble per outing. Consider the Packers defense a strong play as third-tier starting unit.

WEAK PLAY - QUARTERBACK
Brad Johnson, Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots
Johnson has settled in nicely in the Vikings' dink-and-dunk scheme this season. His completion percentage is right where it should be at 64.7 percent since Week 4 (three games). In that same span, Johnson has a nifty 213 passing yards per game but has averaged one interception to go along with one touchdown per game. After a solid performance last week, Johnson is in for a rude awakening versus the Patriots this week. While the Patriots are giving up decent yards to the position (223 per game the last three games), they haven't allowed a single touchdown to the position the last three games. They are also picking off one pass per game in that span. If you own Johnson or were thinking about picking him up for your Bye week, don't even think about starting him this week.

WEAK PLAYS - RUNNING BACK
Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
Another two-headed monster is the tandem of Dillon and Maroney. Together, they are averaging 28 carries, 117 yards and 1.67 touchdowns per game since Week 4 (three games). Anyone would like to have that on their fantasy roster. However, separately in that time Dillon is averaging 14 carries, 53 yards and one touchdown. Maroney is toting the ball 14 times for 64 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game. Speaking of defenses excellent against the position, the Vikings are holding their own. Since Week 4 (three games), running backs are gaining just 46 yards and scoring 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game. Through the air, they are catching 5.33 balls for 35 yards and zero touchdowns per game. Maroney will likely get a warm welcome from the crowd as the former University of Minnesota Golden Gopher, but a cold reception from the Vikings defense. He should only be used as a No. 2 fantasy back, as should Dillon.

WEAK PLAYS - WIDE RECEIVER
Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
It seems like every time you see a Colts highlight it is a touchdown from quarterback Peyton Manning to Harrison. Last week there were two of them, but we really don't tire of it, because Harrison is a class act who goes about his business. Business has been pretty good, though not great, the last three games. Harrison is averaging 5.67 receptions, but only 60 yards per game. On the plus side, he is catching a touchdown per game. It just goes from bad to worse for the outlook on Colts players this week. Harrison is going to have a tough time putting up big numbers against a Broncos unit allowing a miniscule 87 receiving yards and 0.33 touchdowns on 8.33 receptions per game to the position the last three games. Considering Harrison's stud status, he still warrants play as a No. 2 receiver this week.
Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
Cotchery should only be considered as a No. 3 fantasy wideout against the Cleveland Browns this week. Since Week 4 (three games), opposing wideouts are only catching 11 balls for 122 yards and one touchdown per game. Cotchery has averaged 3.8 receptions, 50 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game in the last four games.
WEAK PLAY - TIGHT END
Ben Troupe, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
With rookie quarterback Vince Young under center, Troupe, who had been regarded by many as a preseason sleeper, has been disappointing. We don't think Troupe's fantasy production will improve any time soon. Since Week 4 (three games played), Troupe has averaged 1.33 catches, 14 receiving yards and 0.33 touchdowns per contest. The team has targeted him an average of 2.67 times per game (4.3 percent of the offense) overall, which includes an average of one target per outing (13 percent) inside the red zone. The Texans defense has struggled overall but still has managed to hold enemy tight ends in check, surrendering an average of three receptions and 27 receiving yards per game to the position without allowing a touchdown. Troupe is a weak play as an injury or Bye-week replacement.

WEAK PLAY - PLACE KICKER
Ryan Longwell, Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots
Minnesota's pedestrian offense will face one of the better defenses in the league this week, so we are not expecting much production from Longwell. Since Week 4 (three games played), he has averaged a respectable seven kicking points per game while successfully converting averages of two extra points and 1.67 field goals per outing. During the last month (three games played), the Patriots defense has yielded an average of 5.67 kicking points per game to opposing kickers, who have successfully converted an average of 0.67 extra points and 1.67 field goals per outing. Longwell is a weak play as an injury or Bye-week replacement.

WEAK PLAY - DEFENSIVE TEAM
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Seeing the Indianapolis defense listed here should not surprise you. This unit has struggled all season, and we expect more of the same this week against a Denver Broncos offense that makes few mistakes. The Colts defense, since Week 4 (three games played), has allowed an average of 17 offensive points per contest while logging averages of just 1.33 sacks, 0.67 interceptions and 0.67 recovered fumbles per outing. The Broncos' ultra-conservative offensive unit has scored an average of 14 points per contest, while allowing an average of 1.67 sacks per outing, throwing an average of one interception per game and losing an average of 0.33 fumbles per contest. The Indianapolis defense is a weak play and should stay on your bench.